How Trump’s Threat to Go into Nigeria “Guns-A-Blazing” Reminds Us of Some of the Risks of Investing in Lagos Real Estate — and How to Mitigate Them
What We’re Seeing
On 1 November, Donald Trump — President of the United States — took to social media to warn that the United States might “go into [Nigeria] guns-a-blazing.” He announced he had begun “instructing [the] Department of War to prepare for possible action”, warning that any attack in Nigeria “will be fast, vicious and sweet”. Signing off in all caps, he wrote: “WARNING: THE NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT BETTER MOVE FAST!” He also threatened to immediately halt all aid and assistance to Nigeria.
Days later, from a recorded podium address, he declared that “we’re going to do things to Nigeria that Nigeria is not going to be very happy about,” adding that “there’s going to be hell to pay” if the Nigerian government does not act. Trump framed this as a response to “an existential threat to Christianity in Nigeria” in which “thousands and thousands of Christians are being killed” by “radical Islamists”.
Separately, Nigeria was designated a Country of Particular Concern — an official classification under U.S. law, which applies to countries accused of systematic, ongoing, and egregious violations of religious freedom. With Eritrea the only other African country currently assigned this label, others on the list include Myanmar (Burma), China, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.
Some observers argued that Trump’s comments highlight a pressing issue of religious insecurity within Nigeria. According to Open Doors, 4,476 Christians were killed globally for faith-related reasons in the past reporting year, 69% of those deaths (3,100) were in Nigeria, predominantly in northern parts of the country. Others agreed Christians are indeed victims in Nigeria but argued that Trump’s framing was misleading, explaining that Nigerians of all identities — Christian, Muslim, Traditionalist, Igbo, Yoruba, Hausa and all others — experience intimidation, violence and death tied to complex socio-economic challenges that do not neatly align with religious binaries. Some proponents of both narratives noted the possibility of U.S. intervention with some degree of optimism.
Other commentators suggested Trump’s posture may be tied to Nigeria’s emerging sovereign capabilities in the oil value chain. For decades, Nigeria has exported crude and reimported refined products at great cost. The launch of Dangote’s 650,000-barrel-per-day capacity oil refinery theoretically allows Nigeria to meet domestic demand and export excess with additional value-add. Some commentators argue that Nigeria’s self-reliance with oil could weaken U.S. leverage and hypothesise that this is what has promoted Trump’s stance.
Others postulated that while sanctions or asset freezes on targeted individuals were likely, direct, unwelcomed and prolonged U.S. military intervention in Nigeria remains highly unlikely. Others cited China and Russia as potential powerful allies as well as the soft power of the sizeable Nigerian diaspora who are spread across the world.
Whatever the case, responses were immediate. President Tinubu — himself Muslim, and whose wife is Christian and a pastor — rejected the characterisation of Nigeria as religiously intolerant while welcoming cooperation with the U.S. on protecting all faiths. In the days that followed, and while there may not be a direct link, Tinubu also met publicly with senior Catholic clergy; the ECOWAS chairman visited the presidential villa; and announcements of successful anti-terror operations appeared more prominently across media. Public markets reacted too, with the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) recording noticeable yet predictable outflows.
Why This Matters for Real Estate Investors
Trump’s comments raise international awareness around prolonged and ongoing issues in northern Nigeria and simultaneously provoke anxieties around Nigerian investment risk.
In Lagos — located in Nigeria’s South-West region — most real estate investment risk and losses stem from deal-level and procedural flaws rather than insecurity or geopolitical-related challenges — there are well-documented stories of demolitions, sub-substandard developers and scammers as well as omo onile issues, poor service provision, flooding and administrative irregularities. Lagos real estate investors typically suffer when documentation is incomplete, weak titles are obtained, planning approvals are unclear, boundaries are encroached, when there are unresolved family disputes and when developers over-promise, cut corners and lack credibility. For diaspora Lagos real estate investors, the distance can be a multiplier as decisions are often made without on-ground inspection, reliable comparables or visibility into who is actually building and how the construction is being managed.
The useful news is that these risks are mitigable.
In a market where the difference between a great investment and a regrettable one can be a single overlooked diligence step, support by real estate professionals — such as Rootstone Homes — can be the differentiator.
The Bottom Line
As with investments everywhere, risk cannot be eliminated — but it can be mitigated.
For investors who approach Lagos real estate with professional rigor, the market offers something rare: uncertainties at the surface, and potential high value in the depths.
About Rootstone Homes
Rootstone Homes is a British–Nigerian real estate agency and consultancy focused on helping the Nigerian diaspora invest in Lagos’ real estate with trust, professionalism and greater peace of mind. Accredited by the Lagos State Real Estate Regulatory Authority (LASRERA), we bridge the gap between international buyers and Lagos’ rewarding yet intricate property landscape — mitigating risk and enabling sound, well-informed acquisition decisions.
About the Author
Naomi Chika is the Founder of Rootstone Homes, bringing together a blend of real estate, investment and legal expertise with a deep understanding of the Nigerian diaspora experience. Formerly a private equity and principal investing consultant at McKinsey & Company in London, she once solo across West Africa for five months — travelling by road from Senegal to Nigeria — to deepen her knowledge of the region.
